Global aviation accounts for nearly 3% of all carbon dioxide emissions, with passenger flights making up the largest share besides cargo flights in 2022. These emissions add a large amount of harmful gases such as NOx, CO2, and unburnt hydrocarbons directly into the atmosphere, causing considerable greenhouse gas accumulation and contributing to adverse climate conditions. Additionally, contrails from aircraft enhance the entrapment of these gases and increase their harmful impact. There has been a recent urgency by all nations and industries to address and arrest the growth in emissions from all aviation activities and form a pathway to sustainable aviation. Currently, industry-wide collaborations are underway to assess the impact of flight operations, incentivize and increase the uptake of sustainable aviation fuels, and lower the carbon footprint and mature green technologies through several R&D programs.
The most immediate solution of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) adoption is being implemented globally, and several policymakers also plan to incentivize SAF over traditional aviation fuel with a goal to increase SAF usage to nearly 10% of all aviation fuels consumed by 2030. The challenges in these programs being addressed are the availability of sustainably-sourced feedstock and the challenge of scale production of SAF for operations, such as long-haul and ultra-long-haul flights. Regional fuel suppliers are investing in infrastructure and refineries to transition their aviation fuel feed to SAF and, in particular, “drop-in” SAF, which can be easily mixed with the current stock of aviation fuels and lead to a considerable reduction in emissions. Among other market-based measures, airline operators are shifting to greener ground operations with all electric APUs for taxiing and climate-optimal flight paths, as well as continuous landing and take-off sequences to reduce emissions incrementally.
In terms of technological advancements, electric and hybrid electric aircraft are expected to enter the market as soon as 2030 for low-volume scheduled operations. These are expected to grow in segments from just short-haul flights initially to medium-haul flights with a significant PAX capacity of over 100 passengers. Following its maturation, hydrogen propulsion with direct turbojet combustion, as well as hydrogen fuel cell-based propulsion, is expected to reach commercial readiness by around 2035. Aircraft engine manufacturers are investing in safe cryo-tanks and high-density flying fuel cells with several programs in the testing phases.
The following two figures depict the estimated growth in the aviation fleet in the forecast periods 2021-2032 and 2033-2042.
The preceding figure shows the growth in the commercial aviation fleet in the 2021-2032 period. In 2021, the global commercial fleet comprised 31,000 aircraft and is expected to grow to 37,098 aircraft by 2032, registering a CAGR of 1.77%.
The preceding figure shows the growth in the commercial aviation fleet in the 2033-2042 period. In 2033, the global commercial fleet comprised 37,596 aircraft and is expected to grow to 42,120 aircraft by 2042, registering a CAGR of 1.14%.
The preceding figure shows the number of global departures in the 2021-2032 period. In 2021, the number of global departures was 31 million and is expected to grow to 43.7 million by 2032, registering a CAGR of 3.29%.
The preceding figure shows the number of global departures in the 2033-2042 period. In 2033, the number of global departures was 44.9 million and is expected to grow to 56.3 million by 2042, registering a CAGR of 2.30%.
The following two figures depict the estimated emissions from commercial aviation flights in the most likely of scenarios (scenario 4) during forecast periods 2021-2032 and 2033-2042. Scenario 4, discussed in detail in subsequent chapters, characterizes the response of the aviation industry with conservative adoption of market-based measures of emission control such as fleet-renewals and adoption of green fuels and narrow proliferation of green aviation technology in aircraft manufacturing. The resulting emissions are high and are largely representative of the slow response of the aviation industry as compared to the steady and significant increase in flight demands expected in the same forecast period. Additionally, three other scenarios of possible emissions and their forecast have been covered in the subsequent chapters of the report and discussed in detail therein:
The preceding figure shows the global emissions from commercial flights in the most likely scenario (Scenario 4) during the 2021-2032 timeline. In 2021, the emissions from aviation amounted to 865.72 MMT of CO2 and are expected to grow to 1,203.42 MMT of CO2 by 2032, with a CAGR of 3.03%.
The preceding figure shows the global emissions from commercial flights in the most likely scenario (Scenario 4) during the 2033-2042 timeline. In 2033, the emissions from aviation amounted to 1,204.03 MMT of CO2 and are expected to grow to 1,228.75 MMT of CO2 by 2042, with a CAGR of 0.20%.
The preceding figure shows the global aviation fleet compositions in 2021 and 2032. The narrowbody aircraft fleet is expected to grow from 20,460 aircraft globally to 25, 289 aircraft by 2032, registering a CAGR of 2.09% during the forecast period.
The preceding figure shows the global departures contributed by 12 fleet-flight segments from three flight types: long, medium, and short-haul, and four fleet types: narrowbody, widebody, regional jets, and turboprops. Narrowbody medium-haul flights are expected to grow to around 17.4 million flights by 2032 from 11.6 million in 2021, registering a CAGR of 4.48% during the 2021-2032 timeline.
The preceding figure shows the amount of CO2 emissions from all fleet-flight operations in the most likely scenario (Scenario 4) in 2021 and 2032. Emissions from narrowbody medium-haul operations are highest, growing to 495.39 MMT of CO2 by 2032 from 317.95 MMT of CO2 in 2021, registering a CAGR of 4.07% during the 2021-2032 period.
North America to Dominate in Aviation Emissions in the Most Likely Scenario (Scenario 4)
In 2021, the contribution of North America’s flight operations to global aviation emissions was 389.58 MMT of CO2 in the most likely scenario. Aviation emissions from this region are expected to grow to 505.44 MMT by the end of 2032. The market growth is attributed to the large networks of domestic flights as well as the high traffic from international flights from Europe as well Asia-Pacific. The presence of major airline operators, such as United Airlines, American Airlines, and Delta Airlines, among others, in the North America region is contributing to the total emissions.
Competitive Landscape
The competitive landscape of Aviation Emissions Control consists of several organic and inorganic strategies followed by the key players to increase their market share. The strategies include product innovations, contracts, partnerships, acquisitions, and business expansions.
Some of the key players in the Aviation Emissions Control domain include Airbus S.E., The Boeing Company, Safran S.A., GE Aerospace, MTU Aero Engines, Pratt & Whitney, Alder Fuels, Neste Corporation, and EPIC Fuels, among others. These companies are aiming for a wide range of partnerships, collaborations, agreements, and contracts to expand their operations and increase their market presence globally to generate revenues and attract new customers.
