The U.S. and China have been engaged in a long-standing competition for military supremacy with advanced weapons and ammunitions in their arsenal. China has been steadily expanding its military capabilities and increasing its numerical advantage, while the U.S. military has been developing a new strategy to level the playing field. The strategy involves the use of "swarms," which are groups of autonomous vehicles and drones that can operate on land, air, and sea and can work together to overwhelm the enemy. This multi-front attack strategy is being developed to counter China's dominance in defense and security, which has relied on large numbers of conventional weapons and troops.
Here's the complete story.
The Swarm Strategy
The latest reports suggest that the U.S. military is seeking to buy a counter-Anti-Access/Area-Denial (A2/AD) autonomous drone swarm system that can direct other swarms, effectively overwhelming adversary military installations with thousands of unmanned aerial, surface, underwater, and ground drones.
According to the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the suggested Autonomous Multi-domain Adaptive Swarms-of-Swarms (AMASS) would operate similarly to the Russian strategy of using drones and cruise missiles to entice and then destroy Ukrainian air defenses. This works at a massive "theatre level," where the drones are free to operate without constant supervision and communication.
This marks the most serious attempt to overcome China's astounding advantage with long-range missilery that has deterred the U.S. military, along with the plan to base hypersonic and multiple independent warhead-armed medium-range ballistic missiles around Russia and China. Chinese shores are protected by the largest and most varied arsenal of surface-to-surface, cruise, and anti-ship missiles in the world.
Drone Swarms Controlling Drone Swarms
Without specifically mentioning Russia and China, the DARPA issued a notice and invited military contractors to join the program and mentioned the current battlespace as one that is characterized by A2/AD weaponry.
Given the time-distance-mass edge of the weaponry, peer-state adversaries could invade their neighbors with little notice. "Joint Service and Coalition activities would be badly constrained by adversary A2/AD bubbles equipped with sophisticated air defense, indirect fires, precision weapons, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities," the notice stated.
Autonomy from human authority is the first of the three qualifying characteristics. It would be dangerous and logistically difficult to maintain constant command and communications from human operators in a fiercely contested battlespace.
DARPA planners state in their notice that such a capacity could only be attained by an AI-enabled system. The notice went on to say that the various UAV, USV, and UGV swarms would be able to organize the execution of desired theater-level effects using Artificial Intelligence (AI) liaisons and a common language.
Second, rather than acting solely among themselves, such dispersed drones should be able to coordinate across platforms, including UAV, USV, and UGV groups.
Due to the Swarms of Swarms Protocol (SOSP) language that DARPA would create, this capacity should also apply to swarms that are controlled by other swarms (or ‘Swarms of Swarms’).
This calls for a scenario in which tens of thousands of UAVs, USVs, and UGVs operate autonomously and cooperatively to either attack, monitor, or jam adversary A2/AD installations. However, they won't be able to operate independently of human precision long-range fires, where the drones and the missiles can work together.
To demonstrate this primarily, the DARPA carried out small-scale, real-time, and virtual demos. In order to effectively deny, degrade, or defeat adversary A2/AD capabilities, the drones and missiles could coordinate, collect and disseminate intelligence, perform the coordinated electronic attack (EA), and strike targets.
Potential Advantages and Drawbacks
The use of swarms in the U.S. military's multi-front attack strategy has several potential advantages. The use of autonomous swarms can overwhelm the enemy by coordinating and communicating with each other. They can operate on land, air, and sea, making them versatile and adaptable. The use of autonomous swarms can also reduce the risk to human lives, as they can operate in hazardous and hostile environments.
However, there are also potential drawbacks to this new approach. The use of autonomous swarms relies heavily on technology, and any failure or malfunction could have serious consequences. There is also a risk of cyber attacks on the swarm systems, which could compromise the entire system. Additionally, the use of autonomous swarms could lead to ethical concerns and questions about the use of autonomous weapons in warfare.
Implications for the Future of Warfare
The U.S. military's swarm strategy has significant implications for the future of warfare. The use of autonomous swarms could transform warfare, making it more automated and reducing the need for human intervention. This could also lead to a new arms race, with countries developing their own swarm technology to counter their adversaries. Additionally, the use of autonomous swarms could raise ethical concerns, as the use of autonomous weapons in warfare remains a controversial topic.
Conclusion
The U.S. military's multi-front attack strategy using swarms is a bold and innovative approach to counter China's military dominance. By leveraging advanced technology and autonomous systems, the U.S. military is developing a strategy that can potentially neutralize China's numerical edge on the battlefield. However, as with any new technology, there are potential drawbacks and risks associated with the use of swarms in warfare.
These include issues related to cybersecurity, the possibility of technical failures, and the ethical implications of using autonomous systems in combat. Nevertheless, the U.S. military's swarm strategy represents a significant shift in how wars may be fought in the future, and it highlights the importance of innovation and technological advancement in the modern world. As the competition between the U.S. and China continues to intensify, it is likely that we will see further developments in this area, and it will be fascinating to see how these new technologies and tactics will shape the future of warfare.
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