Carbon Credit Market for Agriculture, Forestry, and Land Use - A Global and Regional Analysis

Carbon Credit Market for Agriculture, Forestry, and Land Use Overview

The carbon credit market for agriculture, forestry, and land use was valued at $6,283.0 million in 2023, and it is expected to grow at a CAGR of 31.49% and reach $97,100.4 million by 2033. The carbon credit market for agriculture, forestry, and land use is witnessing substantial growth driven by advancements in sustainable practices and technologies. Innovations in precision agriculture, forest management techniques, and sustainable land use strategies are key factors shaping this market. Collaborations between stakeholders such as farmers, forestry companies, and landowners, along with regulatory shifts, are driving the adoption of eco-friendly solutions and best practices. These collaborations emphasize the development of reliable and efficient technologies to optimize carbon sequestration, reduce emissions, and enhance ecosystem health.

Introduction of Carbon Credit for Agriculture, Forestry, and Land Use

Carbon credits within agriculture, forestry, and land use constitute tradable permits representing the reduction or avoidance of greenhouse gas emissions associated with activities such as reforestation, afforestation, soil carbon sequestration, and sustainable land management practices. These credits serve as a measurable unit for incentivizing carbon mitigation efforts, enabling stakeholders to offset their emissions by investing in projects that enhance carbon sequestration or reduce carbon emissions, thus promoting sustainable development while mitigating climate change impacts.

Market Introduction

The global carbon credit market for agriculture, forestry, and land use is a dynamic sector analyzed through distinct application and product segments. In terms of application, the market is categorized into avoidance projects, removal projects, and combination projects. On the product side, the market is segmented by project type, focusing on forestry and land use and agriculture. The product segment further classifies forestry and land use based on the project type, such as reducing emissions from deforestation (REDD+), afforestation, reforestation, and revegetation (ARR), and improved forest management (IFM).

Forestry and land use projects involve activities related to forest conservation, reforestation, and sustainable land management practices. Agriculture projects include carbon sequestration methods in farming practices, such as no-till farming, cover cropping, and agroforestry. Market analysis of the global carbon credit market for agriculture, forestry, and land use employs a comprehensive research methodology. This approach combines primary interviews with industry experts and leaders with thorough secondary research to understand market dynamics. Factors influencing demand, technological advancements, regulatory landscapes, and competitive strategies are analyzed. Additionally, data analysis, market sizing, and forecasting techniques are used to provide insights and strategic recommendations for market players aiming to leverage opportunities in the market.

Industrial Impact

The emergence of the carbon credit market within agriculture, forestry, and land use sectors has significantly impacted industrial practices by incentivizing sustainable land management and carbon sequestration initiatives. Industries engaged in these sectors are increasingly recognizing the economic value of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions through activities such as reforestation, afforestation, and soil carbon sequestration, as these efforts not only contribute to environmental conservation but also generate revenue through the sale of carbon credits.

The key players operating in the carbon credit market for agriculture, forestry, and land use are Indigo Ag, Inc., Carbon Credit Capital, LLC., Terra Global Capital, South Pole, Nori, Inc., The California Air Resources Board, Cargill, Incorporated, Regenerative Agriculture Alliance, Ecosystem Services Market Consortium, Bayer AG, 3Degrees Group, Inc, NATUREOFFICE, Climetrek, EKI Energy Services ltd., and Finite Carbon Corporation, among others. These companies are focusing on strategic partnerships, collaborations, and acquisitions to enhance their product offerings and expand their market presence.

Market Segmentation:

Segmentation 1: by Application
•    Removal Project
•    Avoidance Project
•    Combination Project

Combination Project to Dominate Carbon Credit Market for Agriculture, Forestry, and Land Use (by Application)

The global carbon credit market for agriculture, forestry, and land use is shifting toward projects that combine both carbon removal and emissions reduction activities. These combination projects are becoming the leading segment, driven by increasing buyer interest and a premium for credits that offer durable carbon removals over simple emissions reductions.

Buyers are showing a preference for credits that represent a combination of removal and avoidance activities. These projects, including activities such as improved forest management (IFM), REDD+, and sustainable agricultural land management, provide a dual benefit of reducing future emissions and removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This dual benefit makes them highly attractive to buyers in the carbon credit market for agriculture, forestry, and land use.

The market also favors projects that offer removals of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, such as through nature-based solutions such as afforestation/reforestation/revegetation and agro-forestry, as well as industrial carbon removal and biochar production. These removal credits command a premium price, indicating strong demand for projects focused on carbon removal.

The combination project segment, which represents projects that combine both removal and avoidance activities, is expected to drive growth in the global carbon credit market for agriculture, forestry, and land use. Businesses and organizations looking to invest in carbon credit projects should consider the value proposition offered by these combination projects, as they provide a comprehensive approach to carbon mitigation and offer a significant premium in the market.

Segmentation 2: by Project Type
•    Forestry and Land Use
     o REDD+
     o ARR
     o IFM
•    Agriculture

Forestry and Land Use to be Dominant in Carbon Credit Market for Agriculture, Forestry, and Land Use (by Project Type)

The forestry and land use segment has become the leading segment in the global carbon credit market for agriculture, forestry, and land use. This segment plays a critical role in mitigating climate change, providing governments worldwide with a crucial tool to align climate ambitions with policy actions. Efforts are ongoing to enhance the credibility and transparency of this segment, including the development of quality standards and assessment frameworks. These initiatives are vital for building trust and ensuring high integrity across the carbon market.

The increasing convergence between compliance and voluntary carbon markets is a significant trend. It is driven by jurisdictional regulations and tax incentives. Countries such as Singapore have set eligibility criteria for carbon credits used to offset carbon taxes, following similar initiatives in Colombia, Chile, and South Africa. This trend is expected to drive demand in the voluntary carbon market (VCM), especially with the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) set to take effect in 2026. The CBAM will increase carbon prices in non-EU markets, encouraging the use of carbon credits. As a result, the dominance of the forestry and land use segment reflects its crucial role in achieving global climate goals. As efforts continue to enhance and expand these projects, they are poised to remain a cornerstone of the carbon credit market for agriculture, forestry, and land use.

Segmentation 3: by Region
•    North America: U.S., Canada, and Mexico
•    Europe
•    Asia-Pacific: China, Japan, India, South Korea, and Rest-of-Asia-Pacific
•    Rest-of-the-World: Brazil, South Africa, and Others

The Asia-Pacific region emerges as a dominant force in the carbon credit market for agriculture, forestry, and land use, driven by several region-specific dynamics. Notably, the region boasts thriving agricultural and forestry sectors alongside significant technological advancements, propelling the market's growth trajectory. Countries such as China, Japan, South Korea, India, and the Rest-of-Asia-Pacific capitalize on their capabilities and supportive government policies to foster innovation and adoption of sustainable practices within these sectors. China, particularly, distinguishes itself for its leadership in implementing initiatives to enhance carbon sequestration and reduce emissions in agriculture, forestry, and land use. Moreover, the region's strong emphasis on research and development accelerates the deployment of efficient technologies, bolstering carbon mitigation efforts. Government incentives, subsidies, and regulations further stimulate the widespread adoption of sustainable practices, solidifying the Asia-Pacific region's prominence in the global carbon credit market for agriculture, forestry, and land use.

Recent Developments in the Carbon Credit Market for Agriculture, Forestry, and Land Use

• In February, Indigo Ag, Inc. announced the successful conclusion of its third carbon crop. With 163,048 carbon credits generated, Indigo stands as the sole company to achieve three large-scale carbon harvests. The farmers engaged in Indigo Ag's carbon initiative have effectively sequestered or prevented the release of nearly 300,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide.
• In December 2023, Nori, Inc. unveiled the Nori Net Zero Tonne, a pioneering hybrid carbon removal credit designed to revolutionize the market. This innovative offering combined Nori Regenerative Tons with permanent carbon removal from Frontier, addressing a crucial need for credible solutions to offset present-day emissions effectively. 
• In January 2023, Terra Global Capital secured an investment of $640 million from Anew Climate, a leading climate solutions company. This investment is set to accelerate Terra Global's efforts to develop and finance nature-based climate solutions, aiming for positive social and environmental impacts. 
• In March 2022, Ecosystem Services Market Consortium (ESMC) and Benson Hill, Inc. announced the successful completion of the first year of a carbon credit pilot program. Collaborating with soy and corn farmers in the Midwest in 2021, ESMC facilitated the generation of carbon credits by farmers through practices that reduced greenhouse gas emissions and boosted soil carbon levels.
• In May 2021, Tesla generated $518 million in revenue from the sale of carbon credits, contributing to the company's ability to achieve profitability for another consecutive quarter. 

Demand - Drivers, Limitations, and Opportunities

Market Demand Driver: Corporate Commitments to Achieving Net-Zero Emissions and Sustainability Goals

There has been a significant surge in corporate commitments to achieving net-zero emissions and sustainability goals, reflecting a growing recognition among businesses of their role in addressing climate change and contributing to environmental sustainability. An increasing alliance of nations, businesses, and other entities are committing to achieving net-zero emissions. Over 140 countries, including China, the U.S., India, and the European Union, have established net-zero targets, accounting for approximately 88% of global emissions. Additionally, more than 9,000 companies, over 1,000 cities, more than 1,000 educational institutions, and over 600 financial institutions have joined the race to zero initiative, vowing to implement decisive and prompt measures to cut global emissions in half by the year 2030.

In November 2022, PwC India committed to taking decisive action toward environmental sustainability and achieving net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while setting science-based targets. Initiatives are currently in progress to reduce carbon emissions from operational processes and decouple business expansion from emissions. Additionally, Ford Motor Company has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality globally by 2050, as outlined in its 21st annual Sustainability Report. The commitment aligns with the Paris Climate Agreement and involves collaborating with Uber in June 2023 in California to strengthen vehicle greenhouse gas standards. Ford intends to focus on three key areas responsible for approximately 95% of its CO2 emissions, namely, vehicle usage, supply chain, and company facilities. This heightened interest in carbon offsetting initiatives leads to the development of more robust and sustainable market for carbon credits, providing opportunities for investments in projects related to agriculture, forestry, and land use that contribute to carbon sequestration and emission reduction.

Market Challenge: Risk of Greenwashing

Carbon offset programs present a significant issue when relied upon without accompanying emissions reduction efforts, hindering progress toward net-zero targets. Criticisms from international non-governmental organizations such as Friends of the Earth, Greenpeace, and World Wildlife Fund-U.K. highlight concerns about these programs fostering a culture of climate pollution.

Carbon offsetting can also become a form of greenwashing when companies prioritize it over in-house emissions reduction efforts, leading to only partial offsetting and temporary solutions. Double-counting carbon credits and investing in projects with no real additional emissions reductions also contribute to greenwashing practices, deceiving the public about companies' true commitment to reducing carbon emissions. To address the challenges associated with carbon offset programs, various steps have been taken to improve transparency, accountability, and effectiveness. Governments and regulatory bodies have implemented stricter standards and verification processes to ensure that offset projects meet rigorous criteria and deliver real emissions reductions.

Market Opportunity: Increase in Adoption of Agroforestry and Sustainable Farming Practices

The agricultural sector plays a pivotal role in carbon trading due to its dual capacity to emit and sequester carbon. Activities such as tilling, fertilizer application, and livestock farming emit greenhouse gases, while practices such as agroforestry, conservation tillage, and soil carbon sequestration remove carbon from the atmosphere, storing it in the soil. Carbon trading in agriculture presents a pathway to incentivize farmers toward eco-friendly practices, mitigating climate change effects. By engaging in carbon offset projects, farmers can generate additional income by selling carbon credits. Embracing carbon abatement techniques aids in soil carbon sequestration, contributing to greenhouse gas reduction and climate change mitigation. This framework not only financially motivates farmers but also fosters the adoption of sustainable land-use practices, conserving natural resources and minimizing environmental impacts.

Within the carbon credit market for agriculture, forestry, and land use, individual farmers may encounter challenges navigating the complexities of selling carbon credits. Yet, through the coordination of collectives such as Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs) and cooperatives, participation in carbon trading becomes more accessible. These entities play a crucial role in mobilizing farmers, promoting the adoption of carbon abatement practices, and efficiently managing the sale of accumulated carbon credits.

Analyst View

According to Debraj Chakraborty, Principal Analyst, BIS Research, “The carbon credit market for agriculture, forestry, and land use is likely to grow multi-fold in the coming years, owing to the rapidly growing demand for reducing carbon emissions. Moreover, huge investments and infrastructure development by government and federal agencies to promote sustainability and cut down carbon dioxide emissions are expected to further fuel the growth of carbon credits. The market is expected to witness significant growth in the coming years, and the key players in the market are focused on strategic partnerships, collaborations, mergers, and acquisitions to expand their market presence and enhance their product offerings.”